Someone far more intelligent and statistically minded than myself, probably Dr. John Lott, will pick this study apart. The whole study is biased from the get-go; prove that Nevada gun shows and the lack of a 10-day waiting period is responsible for California deaths.
If one had the time and means, investigating each shooting for the circumstances of the incident (why and where the gun came from) would likely demolish this study. This is especially true when the time period analyzed is critically examined.
Second, the study itself points out how the researchers skewed the statistics to their findings. Each state’s gun shows were compared unequally.
“‘Before’ periods were the 14 days before each show; ‘after’ periods were the 14 days after the 10-day waiting period from the start of the show for California or after the start of the show for Nevada, which has no waiting period.”
California has 10 days for any incidental violence after a gun show to calm down while Nevada gets none. By extending the time period, California gun show’s correlation is being watered down. It’s not a true comparison, even though the study’s authors would argue they’re just allowing for when the guns actually become available. It’s statistical hogwash.
What are the dates of the gun shows? The study looked at an increase in violence in two-week period after the gun show. The problem here is that gun shows are often held around holiday weekends, when people tend to get together and gatherings might get a little tense. Domestic violence, homicides, and suicides tend to spike around holidays. A 10-day break from gun show to holiday (or to take one out of the holiday period) would be an nice little break in the statistics.
Why didn’t they look at the crime rate in Nevada after our gun shows, hmm? Also, San Francisco and Los Angeles, whose data were used for the study, are not a two hour drive from Nevada; they are about four hours, on a good day and six or more hours coming back on a weekend. Nice try.